Paragon Institute Report: $19B in State Medicaid Funding at Risk from MCO Tax Phase-Out

CMS released guidance requiring states to wind down MCO taxes by end of FY2026 under H.R. 1 provision. California's MCO tax raises $8.4B in 2025 (99%+ from Medicaid MCOs), generating a projected $19.4B over 4 years through federal matching. CMS estimates $33-75B in federal savings 2026-2030. For California FQHCs, this threatens the Medi-Cal rate increases and program expansions funded by Prop 35 MCO tax revenue. Paragon Institute analysis shows states have no state-funded replacement.