Alabama carriers have filed for a 20.7% weighted-average individual-market increase for 2027 (12.5% non-weighted for small group): Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama 19.7% on about 184,000 members, Celtic 11.6% on about 66,674, UnitedHealthcare 27.64% with covered lives redacted, and Oscar 35.1% on about 873. The number that matters more than the rates is inside BCBSAL's own filing, quoted verbatim: "the total Alabama Individual ACA Market grew from 195,000 in 2021 to over 475,000 in 2025.
Market membership has dropped below 360,000 YTD in 2026." That is a decline of roughly 115,000 people in a single year, which the carrier attributes to the expiration of the enhanced federal subsidies at the end of 2025 — healthier members leaving first, with the remainder "projected to be less healthy."
In an expansion state this population would have a Medicaid floor to land on. Alabama never adopted the expansion, so there is none, and these people arrive at community health centers on sliding-fee schedules rather than as insured patients.
This resolves the open question in the tracked July 8 Alabama item, which noted the state's 2027 rates had not yet posted. Note the sourcing honestly: ACA Signups is a well-regarded secondary aggregator quoting the carrier filing; the underlying primary is the SERFF rate-review filing, and the enrollment figure is carrier-reported.